January 30, 2010
The World is a Dangerous Place
Sometimes my home in the Pacific Northwest reminds me of the Shire in JRR Tolkien's Lord of the Rings. My neighbors may think that's a little bit silly, but that's how Portland, Oregon, looks and feels when I return from the dangerous and broken parts of the world that nobody wants to visit.
Nowhere, however, is safe. No place, no matter how blessed or civilized, can stave it all off forever. Someday, hopefully later rather than sooner, my hometown will become one of the dangerous and broken parts of the world that nobody wants to visit.
From Willamette Week, one of our locals newspapers:
In the reasonably near future, perhaps within our lifetimes and quite possibly as soon as tomorrow, an earthquake will strike Portland with roughly the same force felt this month in Port-au-Prince.
But while the Jan. 12 Haitian quake lasted less than 40 seconds, the shaking in Portland will continue for at least four minutes. Portland will feel a quake with a strength, duration and destruction never before experienced in the developed Western world.
Our cataclysm will begin 75 miles off the Oregon coastline. The ocean floor will split, sending shock waves racing under the water as fast as 17,000 mph. Those shock waves, felt first as a rumble, will slam into Portland in 30 seconds. The rattling will grow into a pulsing undulation that will repeatedly shove the ground up and down as much as 6 feet.
Landslides will ensue in the West Hills, sending mansions crashing on top of each other. Several of the 10 bridges across the Willamette River will collapse—the Steel Bridge, Sellwood Bridge and Marquam Bridge, most likely—and the rest will be impassible. Big Pink and other office towers will sway so violently their granite and glass facades will shear off and crash into the street, piling rubble up 4 feet deep. The Multnomah County Courthouse will tumble. Underground gas, power and water lines will be pulverized. The soil beneath the Portland International Airport will temporarily turn to soup.
About half an hour later, a 30-foot wall of water will crash into the Oregon coastline, with the tsunami flooding as high as 100 feet above sea level, sweeping in and out for hours.
This is not a pitch for the next Hollywood disaster movie. It is the scientific consensus on what will happen here sooner or later. And the latest data suggest it may in fact be sooner.
If you live within 300 miles of me up or down the West Coast, you might want to read the whole thing and figure out what you will do when this happens.
Posted by Michael J. Totten at January 30, 2010 6:05 PM
Comments
"when this happens"
Not if.
When I'm walking the highrise canyons of the financial district in San Francisco, I'm comforted (somewhat) by the knowledge that newer buildings (only) will roll with the punches from a tremor, although a rain of window glass will cascade down to the streets if hundreds (thousands?) of panes pop out of window frames above. I avoid brick structures here whenever I can.
Also, bedrock doesn't predominate under San Francisco streets---or businesses or homes; any street excavation reveals lots of sandy soil. The former maximum security prison on Alcatraz island in San Francisco bay was known as The Rock. Our last major shake in 1989 demonstrated the effects of liquifaction on loose soil and, consequently, any structures that sit on it. If my nieces weren't here I might be living in tornado alley today. Pick your poison.
www.72hours.org
"Are you prepared?"
Posted by: Paul S. at January 30, 2010 7:38 pm
Not if.
When I'm walking the highrise canyons of the financial district in San Francisco, I'm comforted (somewhat) by the knowledge that newer buildings (only) will roll with the punches from a tremor, although a rain of window glass will cascade down to the streets if hundreds (thousands?) of panes pop out of window frames above. I avoid brick structures here whenever I can.
Also, bedrock doesn't predominate under San Francisco streets---or businesses or homes; any street excavation reveals lots of sandy soil. The former maximum security prison on Alcatraz island in San Francisco bay was known as The Rock. Our last major shake in 1989 demonstrated the effects of liquifaction on loose soil and, consequently, any structures that sit on it. If my nieces weren't here I might be living in tornado alley today. Pick your poison.
www.72hours.org
"Are you prepared?"
I read the same article. Historically, the quakes have come in groups of 3-5, 300 years or so apart, followed by 700-1000 quiet periods. The next quake could come soon, or it could be another 700 years until the next quake. Statistically, based on the data in the article, we are most likely in the 700-1000 year quiet period.
Posted by: Lindsey Abelard at January 30, 2010 8:43 pm
I was struck by the sheer number of fault lines running through California alone.
Posted by: Paul S. at January 30, 2010 8:49 pm
FWIW:
When a catastrophe strikes, the epicenter's common-carrier telecommunications (basically, all phone service, cell and land-line) will become saturated after 10 minutes. After that, making a phone call will become an exercise in futility.
The "experts" predicted this, and it has been validated by several real-life catastrophes, including 9/11. California now incorporates that aspect in its emergency preparedness exercises.
Posted by: gus3 at January 30, 2010 9:11 pm
When a catastrophe strikes, the epicenter's common-carrier telecommunications (basically, all phone service, cell and land-line) will become saturated after 10 minutes. After that, making a phone call will become an exercise in futility.
The "experts" predicted this, and it has been validated by several real-life catastrophes, including 9/11. California now incorporates that aspect in its emergency preparedness exercises.
@Paul S.:
"If my nieces weren't here I might be living in tornado alley today. Pick your poison."
Funny you should say that. If my family weren't in the Midwest, I'd probably be living in the desert southwest, with its breath-taking landscape and its life-taking poisonous insects and reptiles.
Posted by: gus3 at January 30, 2010 9:34 pm
"If my nieces weren't here I might be living in tornado alley today. Pick your poison."
Funny you should say that. If my family weren't in the Midwest, I'd probably be living in the desert southwest, with its breath-taking landscape and its life-taking poisonous insects and reptiles.
Yeah, I know what you mean, Gus. But the girls reaching a healthy adulthood overrides my other preferences; Uncle Paul is the closest thing to a good dad they'll see.
Posted by: Paul S. at January 30, 2010 11:31 pm
If you're a student of history you might enjoy some photographs of "The Great Fire", as it was known at the time, that engulfed downtown San Francisco following the April, 1906 earthquake. Michael mentioned recently that two URLs at once creates a disturbance in The Force, so here's one site:
the San Francisco Public Library Historical Photograph Collection:
http://sfpl.org/librarylocations/sfhistory/browse.htm
Posted by: Paul S. at January 31, 2010 12:00 am
the San Francisco Public Library Historical Photograph Collection:
http://sfpl.org/librarylocations/sfhistory/browse.htm
And a second site:
http://www.jbmonaco.com/index.htm
Posted by: Paul S. at January 31, 2010 12:00 am
http://www.jbmonaco.com/index.htm
Paul,
Two URLs is fine. More than two and my spam filter will catch it, and I'll have to manually approve your comment. Manual approval only takes one click, so it's not a big deal.
Posted by: Michael J. Totten at January 31, 2010 12:24 am
Two URLs is fine. More than two and my spam filter will catch it, and I'll have to manually approve your comment. Manual approval only takes one click, so it's not a big deal.
You had me concerned until I happened upon the phrase "scientific consensus". ;)
Posted by: jvon at January 31, 2010 2:55 am
The Northeast is a great place to live! Many places are mostly tornado-proof, flood-proof, hurricane-proof (if you live far enough inland. I'm about 1 hour north of New York City, and the biggest hurricane we've dealt with recently was Hurricane Floyd, and the biggest problem was a 3-day power outage in some areas) and earthquake-proof. And we are great at snow-preparedness if you live in a relatively suburban area. And there isn't even that much snow that its too big a hassle.
The one downside (that has me thisclose to moving away, only to be stopped by the lack of desire to live in a tornado-prone, hurricane-prone, earthquake-prone part of the country) is that you (usually) have to be governed by Democratic nincompoops.
Posted by: James at January 31, 2010 5:30 am
The one downside (that has me thisclose to moving away, only to be stopped by the lack of desire to live in a tornado-prone, hurricane-prone, earthquake-prone part of the country) is that you (usually) have to be governed by Democratic nincompoops.
I'd suggest Australia except every dry season seems to find everything flammable tossed on the barbie. Stations, sheep, homes, national forests and koalas.
Posted by: Pat Patterson at January 31, 2010 7:58 am
[...] [...]
Posted by: Morning Whip, Jan. 31, 2010 - Medary.com at January 31, 2010 9:30 am
Michael,
This is just a usage question. You wrote:
My neighbors may think that's a little bit silly, but that's how Portland, Oregon looks and feels when I return from the dangerous and broken parts of the world that nobody wants to visit.
You did not place a comma after "Oregon." Was this deliberate? Lately I've started to notice writers on the internet not using commas after the name of states and countries. I teach writing for a living and have always taught that the state, here Oregon, is a piece of parenthetical information and thus the writer should use TWO commas, one after the city and the other after the state. Have editors that you use changed this old rule? Again, I've started to see it with other writers and I'm wondering if style-sheets have changed on this matter. Thanks in advance for any thoughts you might have on this matter.
Posted by: Jeffrey at January 31, 2010 11:15 am
This is just a usage question. You wrote:
My neighbors may think that's a little bit silly, but that's how Portland, Oregon looks and feels when I return from the dangerous and broken parts of the world that nobody wants to visit.
You did not place a comma after "Oregon." Was this deliberate? Lately I've started to notice writers on the internet not using commas after the name of states and countries. I teach writing for a living and have always taught that the state, here Oregon, is a piece of parenthetical information and thus the writer should use TWO commas, one after the city and the other after the state. Have editors that you use changed this old rule? Again, I've started to see it with other writers and I'm wondering if style-sheets have changed on this matter. Thanks in advance for any thoughts you might have on this matter.
Jeffrey,
No, it wasn't deliberate. It was a screw up. Thanks for catching it.
Posted by: Michael J. Totten at January 31, 2010 11:29 am
No, it wasn't deliberate. It was a screw up. Thanks for catching it.
Michael,
Thanks. Like I said, I've begun to note the loss of the second comma in writing on the internet, and I was wondering if I had missed the memo on that. I know you're a fine and conscientious writer, so I thought maybe I was wrong on this aspect of comma usage. Carry on, sir.
By the way, I really enjoyed your conversation with Lee Smith. That was great. Over the last eight years or so, I've been impressed with the wide range of fine writing and reporting around the Iraq war and terrorism. You belong to that first group of American bloggers (already good writers, of course) who went to the Middle East out of basic curiosity and to search for something like truth and answers. I wrote about you and Yon and Vincent in this brief review of Iraq for 2005 (you have to scroll down a bit):
A Look at Iraq and the Iraqi Blogosphere: 2005.
I wish Steven Vincent had lived. Like with you, he was someone whose opinion I really had come to respect.
I'm looking forward to buying and reading your book when it comes out.
Posted by: Jeffrey at January 31, 2010 12:14 pm
Thanks. Like I said, I've begun to note the loss of the second comma in writing on the internet, and I was wondering if I had missed the memo on that. I know you're a fine and conscientious writer, so I thought maybe I was wrong on this aspect of comma usage. Carry on, sir.
By the way, I really enjoyed your conversation with Lee Smith. That was great. Over the last eight years or so, I've been impressed with the wide range of fine writing and reporting around the Iraq war and terrorism. You belong to that first group of American bloggers (already good writers, of course) who went to the Middle East out of basic curiosity and to search for something like truth and answers. I wrote about you and Yon and Vincent in this brief review of Iraq for 2005 (you have to scroll down a bit):
A Look at Iraq and the Iraqi Blogosphere: 2005.
I wish Steven Vincent had lived. Like with you, he was someone whose opinion I really had come to respect.
I'm looking forward to buying and reading your book when it comes out.
Jeffrey,
Unfortunately, current technology can encourage impatience. When I had to get out the White-Out or the correcting cartridge for the sheet in the typewriter I was more cautious, and thoughtful. I've fallen victim so often to the temptation to hit Send before I should have that now my text editor software always sees the first draft.
I second your observation about Michael's conscientiousness; I trust he'll just tell me what's going on, with no other agenda, no spin filter.
Posted by: Paul S. at January 31, 2010 4:00 pm
Unfortunately, current technology can encourage impatience. When I had to get out the White-Out or the correcting cartridge for the sheet in the typewriter I was more cautious, and thoughtful. I've fallen victim so often to the temptation to hit Send before I should have that now my text editor software always sees the first draft.
I second your observation about Michael's conscientiousness; I trust he'll just tell me what's going on, with no other agenda, no spin filter.
Paul S.,
I wrote all my undergraduate papers with an old Royal manual typewriter, and I remember well the white dust from the slip of Correcto-Type paper that I would have to insert over the mistyped letter (after back-spacing, of course). And the penalty for typing too quickly toward the end of the paper on a manual typewriter was severe. The paper would start to go askew and you'd have to start typing the page all over again.
I love keyboarding on computers because my fingers can really fly, but you're right that the very ease of writing sometimes makes for sloppy text -- hey, I also remember using those old 5 and one-quarter inch floppy disks (they really were somewhat flexible) to save text back in the late eighties.
In commenting, I do have to force myself to re-read. My instinct (because it often feels more like conversation than writing) is to just send my response without review.
Yep, Michael is one of those guys whom I've learned to trust when he's reporting from or commenting about the Middle East.
Posted by: Jeffrey at January 31, 2010 5:21 pm
I wrote all my undergraduate papers with an old Royal manual typewriter, and I remember well the white dust from the slip of Correcto-Type paper that I would have to insert over the mistyped letter (after back-spacing, of course). And the penalty for typing too quickly toward the end of the paper on a manual typewriter was severe. The paper would start to go askew and you'd have to start typing the page all over again.
I love keyboarding on computers because my fingers can really fly, but you're right that the very ease of writing sometimes makes for sloppy text -- hey, I also remember using those old 5 and one-quarter inch floppy disks (they really were somewhat flexible) to save text back in the late eighties.
In commenting, I do have to force myself to re-read. My instinct (because it often feels more like conversation than writing) is to just send my response without review.
Yep, Michael is one of those guys whom I've learned to trust when he's reporting from or commenting about the Middle East.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb theorized a Black Swan
( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory )
as a high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare event beyond the realm of normal expectations- for example, 9-11 and the rise of the Internet. One can't prepare for a Black Swan except by building robust, nimble systems that can cope with the unexpected and unpredictable. Japan (the Kobe earthquake), Californis (Loma Prieta) and Florida (Hurricane Andrew 1992, multiple hurricanes in 2005) had robust systems. New Orleans (Katrina) and Haiti did not. Oregon will do OK.
Posted by: Jim in Virginia at January 31, 2010 6:28 pm
( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory )
as a high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare event beyond the realm of normal expectations- for example, 9-11 and the rise of the Internet. One can't prepare for a Black Swan except by building robust, nimble systems that can cope with the unexpected and unpredictable. Japan (the Kobe earthquake), Californis (Loma Prieta) and Florida (Hurricane Andrew 1992, multiple hurricanes in 2005) had robust systems. New Orleans (Katrina) and Haiti did not. Oregon will do OK.
Seismology, schmeismology. Everyone will know that the earthquake is divine punishment for some sin or another: fornication, unveiled women, gay bars, swine flu, you name it. Osama Bin Laden and Pat Robertson will bring out the details the day after the earthquake.
Posted by: Gene at January 31, 2010 7:32 pm
I talked with James Roddey a couple of years ago, following a tsunami event that didn't transpire.
There is, in my opinion, a lobby for "preparedness" that moves this type of article.
The thing one must remember is, that the likelihood of such an event occurring is exactly the same at this moment as it is the next, next week, next year. Or, hundred years.
Sometimes we draw conclusions from statistical models that don't bear drawing. But it makes for sensational copy.
.
Posted by: OregonGuy at February 1, 2010 9:18 am
There is, in my opinion, a lobby for "preparedness" that moves this type of article.
The thing one must remember is, that the likelihood of such an event occurring is exactly the same at this moment as it is the next, next week, next year. Or, hundred years.
Sometimes we draw conclusions from statistical models that don't bear drawing. But it makes for sensational copy.
.
[...] A few days ago, my friend Michael Totten posted an interesting — and disturbing — post on his site about a potential earthquake that very well could hit the Pacific Northwest in our life time. Read [...]
Posted by: Nowhere Are You Completely Safe From Disasters « Columbia Gorge Dispatch at February 2, 2010 9:39 pm
For those who think that being in tornado alley will keep them safe from earthquakes, try Googling "New Madrid" Yup, the location of the biggest quake in US history was Missouri -- the Mississippi River ran backwards for days. And, after 200 years, that fault might be thinking about having another go, don't you think...?
Posted by: wj at February 3, 2010 11:00 am
New Madrid has been dormant for a while and bears watching. "A while"? In geologic time? The most educated (honest) quess always emphasizes "guess", doesn't it? Hell, my home state of Massachusetts has had quakes. As I said earlier, you pick your poison. And, if you're wise, prepare---as best you can. Good luck!
:-)
Posted by: Paul S. at February 4, 2010 1:33 am
:-)
"Birth state," not current home state, having migrated west years ago.
Posted by: Paul S. at February 4, 2010 1:41 am
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